The World Before Winter: What Will Make Putin Stop the War

On Wednesday, June 3, the economic forum in St. Petersburg—another propaganda platform for Putin on par with Valdai—began against the backdrop of an attack by "unknown" drones on the oil terminal in the city. Photos of forum participants standing in line while a thick black column of smoke rose outside circulated across all social media. Putin's speech at this forum is expected on Friday, June 5. Of course, if it is not canceled, as Ukraine did not grant its official permission for the forum to take place, just like with the "Victory Day" parade on May 9 in Moscow.

During the last press conference on Friday, May 29, Putin stated that he made his preliminary statement about the "approaching completion" of the war based on an analysis of the situation on the battlefield, where Russian troops allegedly "advance in all directions every day." The Kremlin leader once again presents wishful thinking as reality. The initiative on the battlefield is now with the Ukrainian Defense Forces. For the second consecutive month, the occupiers are losing captured territories. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken control of the "land bridge"—the main route—to the occupied Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

In Crimea, there is already a fuel crisis. Limits on gasoline sales have also been introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region, and St. Petersburg. Earlier, restrictions were imposed in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Almost all major oil refineries in central Russia have reduced or completely halted production. Western media are increasingly reporting that the costs of the war are becoming unsustainable for the Russian budget. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia have even suggested to Putin to cut military funding. Instead, the Kremlin has ordered reductions in spending on civilian sectors, preparing for the announcement of mobilization.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he is ready for direct negotiations with Putin. Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues to threaten with nuclear weapons, reminding of "systematic and consistent" strikes on Kyiv. So, is it possible to end the hot phase of the war before winter, as the Ukrainian leadership claims? Read more in the material from TSN.ua.

Forum with a Spark: Ukraine Did Not Grant Permission

On Wednesday, June 3, during a visit to Kyiv, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that for the economic forum in St. Petersburg, just like for the parade in Moscow on May 9, Putin needs permission from Zelenskyy.

"Ukraine has achieved such successes that Putin can organize a parade on May 9 only thanks to an official decree from this president (Zelenskyy—Ed.). I believe that Ukraine is becoming increasingly successful both on the front lines and in terms of destroying part of the capabilities and potential of the Russians to continue the war," noted the NATO Secretary General.

Indeed, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, thanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we feel strength on the battlefield today; we have made very serious progress in deep strikes against Russia. In particular, on the night of Wednesday, June 3, drones targeted the "St. Petersburg oil terminal" located 1100 km from the Ukrainian border. Global media reported that Ukrainian drones struck St. Petersburg just hours before the opening of the "Putin Davos." Social media users joked about the forum "with a spark."

The Kremlin pretended not to notice this. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov mentioned something about the "contribution of the sponsors of the Kyiv regime," again threatening with a nuclear strike, while Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov justified the need to continue the war by the burning oil terminal in St. Petersburg. According to him, Putin's speech at the forum in St. Petersburg will be dedicated to economic problems both in Russia and at the international level. However, it is unlikely that the Kremlin leader will tell the truth about the real economic situation in Russia, which is faced with the choice of cutting military spending or continuing to "cut" social spending and raise taxes.

Putin Chooses War: Mobilization in Russia by the End of the Year

"Russia is faced with the choice: cut military funding or continue the war, which will constantly require increased spending and further tax hikes, exacerbating economic decline into recession and reducing real incomes," commented Reuters former Deputy Head of the Central Bank of Russia Oleg Vyugin.

According to Bloomberg, Russian officials, including those from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, have warned Putin that the costs of the war are becoming unsustainable. The rise in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and the blocked Strait of Hormuz by Iran is not bringing Moscow super profits. Experts warn that in the long run, the Kremlin will not be able to simultaneously increase war expenditures, balance inflation, and manage the budget deficit. To continue the war, the Russian government will need to "cut" social spending and raise taxes or print money at a frantic pace.

From January 1, 2026, VAT in Russia has already been increased from 20% to 22%. Amendments to the Russian Tax Code have led to losses for half of Russian businesses. The corporate profit tax was raised from 20% to 25% back in 2025. And now preparations are underway to introduce a 20% tax on excess profits. The imbalance between the military-industrial complex, which is generously subsidized, and the conditionally civilian sector has deepened even further after Putin's meeting with business leaders at the end of March, where the Kremlin leader ordered additional contributions to the Russian treasury to cover the deficit and military needs.

Although the Kremlin continuously raises contract signing bonuses (this year on average by 25%), it is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to find the money for this. Moreover, analysts have recorded a decline in recruitment rates in Russia in the first quarter of this year. Together with the monthly losses of the occupiers on the front, around 35,000 military personnel, which do not cover the replenishment with new contract soldiers, after the elections to the State Duma in September, Putin will face the necessity of announcing a second wave of mandatory mobilization (the first was in September 2022).

The US + Europe Format: How to Talk to Putin

According to the head of the President's Office Kyrylo Budanov, President Zelenskyy has instructed to try to end the war as soon as possible, preferably before winter. In his opinion, Ukraine has sufficient capabilities, and there are real signs that the groundwork for a cessation of hostilities already exists. Indeed, under conditions where the initiative on the battlefield is with the Ukrainian Defense Forces, a window of opportunity opens for us. However, according to experts, in a few months, the enemy may find means of counteraction.

In an article for Foreign Affairs, expert Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) notes that the effectiveness of Russian forces on the battlefield is currently declining mainly due to significant losses that are not compensated by recruitment volumes. In mid-May, Deputy Head of the President's Office, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, cited an example: in the first quarter of this year, the Russians completely failed the recruitment campaign for personnel in drone units.

Thus, with the right calculations, increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, supplying weapons to Ukraine, including air defense systems, and a swift end to the war in the Middle East (oil prices will go down, and thus Russian budget revenues will decrease), negotiations for a ceasefire are indeed possible. But it should be noted that they are not unconditional. As we see, Russia is betting on brutal air attacks on residential buildings in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. After another such strike on Tuesday, June 2, Peskov stated that the war could end by the end of the day, "for this, Zelenskyy needs to order his armed forces to leave the territory of Russian regions."

It is not excluded that Moscow may agree to continue negotiations in the US-Ukraine-Russia format while simultaneously shelling Ukraine, including striking energy infrastructure. From the latest large-scale Russian attacks, particularly on Kyiv, we see that the Trump administration continues to pretend to be a mediator, speaking about strikes "from one side or another" (this was a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio without any condemnation of Russia). Therefore, it would be advisable for Ukraine to involve a representative from Europe in this negotiation process. Because hoping for a strong role from the US, which wants to establish relations with Russia and is withdrawing its troops from the European continent, is hardly realistic.